USD/TRY: centripetal acceleration

One of the recent “achievements” of USD/TRY was reaching 8.50 at the beginning of the month. TRY has never been as cheap to the USD as that as you can see in the lower monthly chart. However, it immediately bounced downwards dropping below 8.00 and currently trading at 7.66. Will it reach 7.00? That all depends on the actions of the Turkish Central Bank.

Primarily, the sudden recovery of the Turkish lira may be related to the staff changes at the heights of the Turkish financial authorities. Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the Central Bank governor Murat Uysal, and then the finance minister of the country resigned as well – possibly on the unstoppable depreciation of lira. If that’s the case, then we are going to see some changes in the Turkish monetary policy on November 19 when the Turkish Central Bank is supposed to announce its benchmark one-week repo rate. The market is expecting to see an increase in the rate amid raging inflation in Turkey – something that the Turkish bank failed to do the previous time.

Therefore, if the Turkish Central Bank increases the rate, we are likely to see the Turkish lira recover even more – possibly, dragging USD/TRY below the 100-MA. Otherwise, if no change in the rate is the scenario we will have on November 19, USD/TRY will likely go back to the heights above 8.00.

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Author: FBS Analyst Team

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